NFL PickEm

I have been playing PickEm for nearly a decade, and I am so addicted to it. It is just the right amount of analysis and luck that it drives the engineer in me crazy... but it is so much fun. There are so many weeks that I am just one play away from a win, and then boom, it happens and I come in second. Then that magic week happens and everything falls into place, and I am the winner and on top of the clouds. I have worked for years on developing this system and I have done well with it. I hope you find it useful.

Folder Week: week_14

NFL PickEm Week 14

Pick #16

Matchup: CAR at PHI

My Pick: PHI

Away Team: CAR (3-9)
Outlook: Bryce Young is playing just well enough to not get a fresh start with a better team.
Wk#1: CAR at NO (10 - 47) L -- Wk#2: LAC at CAR (26 - 3) L -- Wk#3: CAR at LV (36 - 22) W -- Wk#4: CIN at CAR (34 - 24) L -- Wk#5: CAR at CHI (10 - 36) L -- Wk#6: ATL at CAR (38 - 20) L -- Wk#7: CAR at WAS (7 - 40) L -- Wk#8: CAR at DEN (14 - 28) L -- Wk#9: NO at CAR (22 - 23) W -- Wk#10: NYG at CAR (17 - 20) W -- Wk#12: KC at CAR (30 - 27) L -- Wk#13: TB at CAR (26 - 23) L
Power Ranking: 26
Home Team: PHI (10-2)
Outlook: They arguably should be higher.
Wk#1: GB at PHI (29 - 34) W -- Wk#2: ATL at PHI (22 - 21) L -- Wk#3: PHI at NO (15 - 12) W -- Wk#4: PHI at TB (16 - 33) L -- Wk#6: CLE at PHI (16 - 20) W -- Wk#7: PHI at NYG (28 - 3) W -- Wk#8: PHI at CIN (37 - 17) W -- Wk#9: JAX at PHI (23 - 28) W -- Wk#10: PHI at DAL (34 - 6) W -- Wk#11: WAS at PHI (18 - 26) W -- Wk#12: PHI at LA (37 - 20) W -- Wk#13: PHI at BAL (24 - 19) W
Power Ranking: 3
My Calc: 17.8
Power Diff: 23
Home Odds: 12

Pick #15

Matchup: CLE at PIT

My Pick: PIT

Away Team: CLE (3-9)
Outlook: Three interceptions or not, the Browns need to keep Jameis Winston for 2025, and beyond.
Wk#1: DAL at CLE (33 - 17) L -- Wk#2: CLE at JAX (18 - 13) W -- Wk#3: NYG at CLE (21 - 15) L -- Wk#4: CLE at LV (16 - 20) L -- Wk#5: CLE at WAS (13 - 34) L -- Wk#6: CLE at PHI (16 - 20) L -- Wk#7: CIN at CLE (21 - 14) L -- Wk#8: BAL at CLE (24 - 29) W -- Wk#9: LAC at CLE (27 - 10) L -- Wk#11: CLE at NO (14 - 35) L -- Wk#12: PIT at CLE (19 - 24) W -- Wk#13: CLE at DEN (32 - 41) L
Power Ranking: 27
Home Team: PIT (9-3)
Outlook: Three days after Thanksgiving, Russ cooked up an even better meal.
Wk#1: PIT at ATL (18 - 10) W -- Wk#2: PIT at DEN (13 - 6) W -- Wk#3: LAC at PIT (10 - 20) W -- Wk#4: PIT at IND (24 - 27) L -- Wk#5: DAL at PIT (20 - 17) L -- Wk#6: PIT at LV (32 - 13) W -- Wk#7: NYJ at PIT (15 - 37) W -- Wk#8: NYG at PIT (18 - 26) W -- Wk#10: PIT at WAS (28 - 27) W -- Wk#11: BAL at PIT (16 - 18) W -- Wk#12: PIT at CLE (19 - 24) L -- Wk#13: PIT at CIN (44 - 38) W
Power Ranking: 7
My Calc: 11.5
Power Diff: 20
Home Odds: 6.5

Pick #14

Matchup: LV at TB

My Pick: TB

Away Team: LV (2-10)
Outlook: We argued last year that Antonio Pierce should get a chance. He got one.
Wk#1: LV at LAC (10 - 22) L -- Wk#2: LV at BAL (26 - 23) W -- Wk#3: CAR at LV (36 - 22) L -- Wk#4: CLE at LV (16 - 20) W -- Wk#5: LV at DEN (18 - 34) L -- Wk#6: PIT at LV (32 - 13) L -- Wk#7: LV at LA (15 - 20) L -- Wk#8: KC at LV (27 - 20) L -- Wk#9: LV at CIN (24 - 41) L -- Wk#11: LV at MIA (19 - 34) L -- Wk#12: DEN at LV (29 - 19) L -- Wk#13: LV at KC (17 - 19) L
Power Ranking: 30
Home Team: TB (6-6)
Outlook: Two wins in a row. Can they keep it going?
Wk#1: WAS at TB (20 - 37) W -- Wk#2: TB at DET (20 - 16) W -- Wk#3: DEN at TB (26 - 7) L -- Wk#4: PHI at TB (16 - 33) W -- Wk#5: TB at ATL (30 - 36) L -- Wk#6: TB at NO (51 - 27) W -- Wk#7: BAL at TB (41 - 31) L -- Wk#8: ATL at TB (31 - 26) L -- Wk#9: TB at KC (24 - 30) L -- Wk#10: SF at TB (23 - 20) L -- Wk#12: TB at NYG (30 - 7) W -- Wk#13: TB at CAR (26 - 23) W
Power Ranking: 13
My Calc: 10.8
Power Diff: 17
Home Odds: 6.5

Pick #13

Matchup: ATL at MIN

My Pick: MIN

Away Team: ATL (6-6)
Outlook: Three losses, no touchdown passes, six interceptions. When does the Michael Penix Jr. conversation begin?
Wk#1: PIT at ATL (18 - 10) L -- Wk#2: ATL at PHI (22 - 21) W -- Wk#3: KC at ATL (22 - 17) L -- Wk#4: NO at ATL (24 - 26) W -- Wk#5: TB at ATL (30 - 36) W -- Wk#6: ATL at CAR (38 - 20) W -- Wk#7: SEA at ATL (34 - 14) L -- Wk#8: ATL at TB (31 - 26) W -- Wk#9: DAL at ATL (21 - 27) W -- Wk#10: ATL at NO (17 - 20) L -- Wk#11: ATL at DEN (6 - 38) L -- Wk#13: LAC at ATL (17 - 13) L
Power Ranking: 19
Home Team: MIN (10-2)
Outlook: At some point, their luck is going to run out.
Wk#1: MIN at NYG (28 - 6) W -- Wk#2: SF at MIN (17 - 23) W -- Wk#3: HOU at MIN (7 - 34) W -- Wk#4: MIN at GB (31 - 29) W -- Wk#5: NYJ at MIN (17 - 23) W -- Wk#7: DET at MIN (31 - 29) L -- Wk#8: MIN at LA (20 - 30) L -- Wk#9: IND at MIN (13 - 21) W -- Wk#10: MIN at JAX (12 - 7) W -- Wk#11: MIN at TEN (23 - 13) W -- Wk#12: MIN at CHI (30 - 27) W -- Wk#13: ARI at MIN (22 - 23) W
Power Ranking: 5
My Calc: 9
Power Diff: 14
Home Odds: 5.5

Pick #12

Matchup: BUF at LA

My Pick: BUF

Away Team: BUF (10-2)
Outlook: If the Raiders hadn’t blown their chance to beat the Chiefs, the Bills would be the top seed in the AFC.
Wk#1: ARI at BUF (28 - 34) W -- Wk#2: BUF at MIA (31 - 10) W -- Wk#3: JAX at BUF (10 - 47) W -- Wk#4: BUF at BAL (10 - 35) L -- Wk#5: BUF at HOU (20 - 23) L -- Wk#6: BUF at NYJ (23 - 20) W -- Wk#7: TEN at BUF (10 - 34) W -- Wk#8: BUF at SEA (31 - 10) W -- Wk#9: MIA at BUF (27 - 30) W -- Wk#10: BUF at IND (30 - 20) W -- Wk#11: KC at BUF (21 - 30) W -- Wk#13: SF at BUF (10 - 35) W
Power Ranking: 2
Home Team: LA (6-6)
Outlook: The rest of the NFC playoff field should not want the Rams in it.
Wk#1: LA at DET (20 - 26) L -- Wk#2: LA at ARI (10 - 41) L -- Wk#3: SF at LA (24 - 27) W -- Wk#4: LA at CHI (18 - 24) L -- Wk#5: GB at LA (24 - 19) L -- Wk#7: LV at LA (15 - 20) W -- Wk#8: MIN at LA (20 - 30) W -- Wk#9: LA at SEA (26 - 20) W -- Wk#10: MIA at LA (23 - 15) L -- Wk#11: LA at NE (28 - 22) W -- Wk#12: PHI at LA (37 - 20) L -- Wk#13: LA at NO (21 - 14) W
Power Ranking: 16
My Calc: -8
Power Diff: -14
Home Odds: -4.5

Pick #11

Matchup: NO at NYG

My Pick: NO

Away Team: NO (4-8)
Outlook: It was fun while it lasted.
Wk#1: CAR at NO (10 - 47) W -- Wk#2: NO at DAL (44 - 19) W -- Wk#3: PHI at NO (15 - 12) L -- Wk#4: NO at ATL (24 - 26) L -- Wk#5: NO at KC (13 - 26) L -- Wk#6: TB at NO (51 - 27) L -- Wk#7: DEN at NO (33 - 10) L -- Wk#8: NO at LAC (8 - 26) L -- Wk#9: NO at CAR (22 - 23) L -- Wk#10: ATL at NO (17 - 20) W -- Wk#11: CLE at NO (14 - 35) W -- Wk#13: LA at NO (21 - 14) L
Power Ranking: 22
Home Team: NYG (2-10)
Outlook: Who will play quarterback on Sunday? And will it matter?
Wk#1: MIN at NYG (28 - 6) L -- Wk#2: NYG at WAS (18 - 21) L -- Wk#3: NYG at CLE (21 - 15) W -- Wk#4: DAL at NYG (20 - 15) L -- Wk#5: NYG at SEA (29 - 20) W -- Wk#6: CIN at NYG (17 - 7) L -- Wk#7: PHI at NYG (28 - 3) L -- Wk#8: NYG at PIT (18 - 26) L -- Wk#9: WAS at NYG (27 - 22) L -- Wk#10: NYG at CAR (17 - 20) L -- Wk#12: TB at NYG (30 - 7) L -- Wk#13: NYG at DAL (20 - 27) L
Power Ranking: 31
My Calc: -7.2
Power Diff: -9
Home Odds: -5

Pick #10

Matchup: NYJ at MIA

My Pick: MIA

Away Team: NYJ (3-9)
Outlook: It was never fun.
Wk#1: NYJ at SF (19 - 32) L -- Wk#2: NYJ at TEN (24 - 17) W -- Wk#3: NE at NYJ (3 - 24) W -- Wk#4: DEN at NYJ (10 - 9) L -- Wk#5: NYJ at MIN (17 - 23) L -- Wk#6: BUF at NYJ (23 - 20) L -- Wk#7: NYJ at PIT (15 - 37) L -- Wk#8: NYJ at NE (22 - 25) L -- Wk#9: HOU at NYJ (13 - 21) W -- Wk#10: NYJ at ARI (6 - 31) L -- Wk#11: IND at NYJ (28 - 27) L -- Wk#13: SEA at NYJ (26 - 21) L
Power Ranking: 25
Home Team: MIA (5-7)
Outlook: Narratives are stubborn things.
Wk#1: JAX at MIA (17 - 20) W -- Wk#2: BUF at MIA (31 - 10) L -- Wk#3: MIA at SEA (3 - 24) L -- Wk#4: TEN at MIA (31 - 12) L -- Wk#5: MIA at NE (15 - 10) W -- Wk#7: MIA at IND (10 - 16) L -- Wk#8: ARI at MIA (28 - 27) L -- Wk#9: MIA at BUF (27 - 30) L -- Wk#10: MIA at LA (23 - 15) W -- Wk#11: LV at MIA (19 - 34) W -- Wk#12: NE at MIA (15 - 34) W -- Wk#13: MIA at GB (17 - 30) L
Power Ranking: 21
My Calc: 7
Power Diff: 4
Home Odds: 6

Pick #9

Matchup: LAC at KC

My Pick: KC

Away Team: LAC (8-4)
Outlook: Short week, long trip, opponent coming off a bye week, but the new-look Chargers still got it done.
Wk#1: LV at LAC (10 - 22) W -- Wk#2: LAC at CAR (26 - 3) W -- Wk#3: LAC at PIT (10 - 20) L -- Wk#4: KC at LAC (17 - 10) L -- Wk#6: LAC at DEN (23 - 16) W -- Wk#7: LAC at ARI (15 - 17) L -- Wk#8: NO at LAC (8 - 26) W -- Wk#9: LAC at CLE (27 - 10) W -- Wk#10: TEN at LAC (17 - 27) W -- Wk#11: CIN at LAC (27 - 34) W -- Wk#12: BAL at LAC (30 - 23) L -- Wk#13: LAC at ATL (17 - 13) W
Power Ranking: 11
Home Team: KC (11-1)
Outlook: At some point, their luck is going to run out.
Wk#1: BAL at KC (20 - 27) W -- Wk#2: CIN at KC (25 - 26) W -- Wk#3: KC at ATL (22 - 17) W -- Wk#4: KC at LAC (17 - 10) W -- Wk#5: NO at KC (13 - 26) W -- Wk#7: KC at SF (28 - 18) W -- Wk#8: KC at LV (27 - 20) W -- Wk#9: TB at KC (24 - 30) W -- Wk#10: DEN at KC (14 - 16) W -- Wk#11: KC at BUF (21 - 30) L -- Wk#12: KC at CAR (30 - 27) W -- Wk#13: LV at KC (17 - 19) W
Power Ranking: 4
My Calc: 5.8
Power Diff: 7
Home Odds: 4

Pick #8

Matchup: CHI at SF

My Pick: SF

Away Team: CHI (4-8)
Outlook: It was fun while it lasted.
Wk#1: TEN at CHI (17 - 24) W -- Wk#2: CHI at HOU (13 - 19) L -- Wk#3: CHI at IND (16 - 21) L -- Wk#4: LA at CHI (18 - 24) W -- Wk#5: CAR at CHI (10 - 36) W -- Wk#6: JAX at CHI (16 - 35) W -- Wk#8: CHI at WAS (15 - 18) L -- Wk#9: CHI at ARI (9 - 29) L -- Wk#10: NE at CHI (19 - 3) L -- Wk#11: GB at CHI (20 - 19) L -- Wk#12: MIN at CHI (30 - 27) L -- Wk#13: CHI at DET (20 - 23) L
Power Ranking: 24
Home Team: SF (5-7)
Outlook: They’re running out of time to get back on track.
Wk#1: NYJ at SF (19 - 32) W -- Wk#2: SF at MIN (17 - 23) L -- Wk#3: SF at LA (24 - 27) L -- Wk#4: NE at SF (13 - 30) W -- Wk#5: ARI at SF (24 - 23) L -- Wk#6: SF at SEA (36 - 24) W -- Wk#7: KC at SF (28 - 18) L -- Wk#8: DAL at SF (24 - 30) W -- Wk#10: SF at TB (23 - 20) W -- Wk#11: SEA at SF (20 - 17) L -- Wk#12: SF at GB (10 - 38) L -- Wk#13: SF at BUF (10 - 35) L
Power Ranking: 18
My Calc: 5.5
Power Diff: 6
Home Odds: 4

Pick #7

Matchup: CIN at DAL

My Pick: CIN

Away Team: CIN (4-8)
Outlook: It was fun while it lasted.
Wk#1: NE at CIN (16 - 10) L -- Wk#2: CIN at KC (25 - 26) L -- Wk#3: WAS at CIN (38 - 33) L -- Wk#4: CIN at CAR (34 - 24) W -- Wk#5: BAL at CIN (41 - 38) L -- Wk#6: CIN at NYG (17 - 7) W -- Wk#7: CIN at CLE (21 - 14) W -- Wk#8: PHI at CIN (37 - 17) L -- Wk#9: LV at CIN (24 - 41) W -- Wk#10: CIN at BAL (34 - 35) L -- Wk#11: CIN at LAC (27 - 34) L -- Wk#13: PIT at CIN (44 - 38) L
Power Ranking: 23
Home Team: DAL (5-7)
Outlook: They’ve still got a long way to go to be contenders.
Wk#1: DAL at CLE (33 - 17) W -- Wk#2: NO at DAL (44 - 19) L -- Wk#3: BAL at DAL (28 - 25) L -- Wk#4: DAL at NYG (20 - 15) W -- Wk#5: DAL at PIT (20 - 17) W -- Wk#6: DET at DAL (47 - 9) L -- Wk#8: DAL at SF (24 - 30) L -- Wk#9: DAL at ATL (21 - 27) L -- Wk#10: PHI at DAL (34 - 6) L -- Wk#11: HOU at DAL (34 - 10) L -- Wk#12: DAL at WAS (34 - 26) W -- Wk#13: NYG at DAL (20 - 27) W
Power Ranking: 20
My Calc: -4.8
Power Diff: 3
Home Odds: -5.5

Pick #6

Matchup: JAX at TEN

My Pick: TEN

Away Team: JAX (2-10)
Outlook: There’s no reason for the Jaguars to put Trevor Lawrence back on the field this season.
Wk#1: JAX at MIA (17 - 20) L -- Wk#2: CLE at JAX (18 - 13) L -- Wk#3: JAX at BUF (10 - 47) L -- Wk#4: JAX at HOU (20 - 24) L -- Wk#5: IND at JAX (34 - 37) W -- Wk#6: JAX at CHI (16 - 35) L -- Wk#7: NE at JAX (16 - 32) W -- Wk#8: GB at JAX (30 - 27) L -- Wk#9: JAX at PHI (23 - 28) L -- Wk#10: MIN at JAX (12 - 7) L -- Wk#11: JAX at DET (6 - 52) L -- Wk#13: HOU at JAX (23 - 20) L
Power Ranking: 32
Home Team: TEN (3-9)
Outlook: They apparently took Thanksgiving week off.
Wk#1: TEN at CHI (17 - 24) L -- Wk#2: NYJ at TEN (24 - 17) L -- Wk#3: GB at TEN (30 - 14) L -- Wk#4: TEN at MIA (31 - 12) W -- Wk#6: IND at TEN (20 - 17) L -- Wk#7: TEN at BUF (10 - 34) L -- Wk#8: TEN at DET (14 - 52) L -- Wk#9: NE at TEN (17 - 20) W -- Wk#10: TEN at LAC (17 - 27) L -- Wk#11: MIN at TEN (23 - 13) L -- Wk#12: TEN at HOU (32 - 27) W -- Wk#13: TEN at WAS (19 - 42) L
Power Ranking: 28
My Calc: 4.5
Power Diff: 4
Home Odds: 3.5

Pick #5

Matchup: GB at DET

My Pick: DET

Away Team: GB (9-3)
Outlook: Opportunity awaits on Thursday night in Detroit.
Wk#1: GB at PHI (29 - 34) L -- Wk#2: IND at GB (10 - 16) W -- Wk#3: GB at TEN (30 - 14) W -- Wk#4: MIN at GB (31 - 29) L -- Wk#5: GB at LA (24 - 19) W -- Wk#6: ARI at GB (13 - 34) W -- Wk#7: HOU at GB (22 - 24) W -- Wk#8: GB at JAX (30 - 27) W -- Wk#9: DET at GB (24 - 14) L -- Wk#11: GB at CHI (20 - 19) W -- Wk#12: SF at GB (10 - 38) W -- Wk#13: MIA at GB (17 - 30) W
Power Ranking: 6
Home Team: DET (11-1)
Outlook: The injuries are piling up. Will it derail their Super Bowl run?
Wk#1: LA at DET (20 - 26) W -- Wk#2: TB at DET (20 - 16) L -- Wk#3: DET at ARI (20 - 13) W -- Wk#4: SEA at DET (29 - 42) W -- Wk#6: DET at DAL (47 - 9) W -- Wk#7: DET at MIN (31 - 29) W -- Wk#8: TEN at DET (14 - 52) W -- Wk#9: DET at GB (24 - 14) W -- Wk#10: DET at HOU (26 - 23) W -- Wk#11: JAX at DET (6 - 52) W -- Wk#12: DET at IND (24 - 6) W -- Wk#13: CHI at DET (20 - 23) W
Power Ranking: 1
My Calc: 4.2
Power Diff: 5
Home Odds: 3

Pick #4

Matchup: SEA at ARI

My Pick: ARI

Away Team: SEA (7-5)
Outlook: Three wins in a row. Can they keep it going?
Wk#1: DEN at SEA (20 - 26) W -- Wk#2: SEA at NE (23 - 20) W -- Wk#3: MIA at SEA (3 - 24) W -- Wk#4: SEA at DET (29 - 42) L -- Wk#5: NYG at SEA (29 - 20) L -- Wk#6: SF at SEA (36 - 24) L -- Wk#7: SEA at ATL (34 - 14) W -- Wk#8: BUF at SEA (31 - 10) L -- Wk#9: LA at SEA (26 - 20) L -- Wk#11: SEA at SF (20 - 17) W -- Wk#12: ARI at SEA (6 - 16) W -- Wk#13: SEA at NYJ (26 - 21) W
Power Ranking: 12
Home Team: ARI (6-6)
Outlook: If they’re going to be a playoff contender, they need to learn how to close out games they should win.
Wk#1: ARI at BUF (28 - 34) L -- Wk#2: LA at ARI (10 - 41) W -- Wk#3: DET at ARI (20 - 13) L -- Wk#4: WAS at ARI (42 - 14) L -- Wk#5: ARI at SF (24 - 23) W -- Wk#6: ARI at GB (13 - 34) L -- Wk#7: LAC at ARI (15 - 17) W -- Wk#8: ARI at MIA (28 - 27) W -- Wk#9: CHI at ARI (9 - 29) W -- Wk#10: NYJ at ARI (6 - 31) W -- Wk#12: ARI at SEA (6 - 16) L -- Wk#13: ARI at MIN (22 - 23) L
Power Ranking: 14
My Calc: 2
Power Diff: -2
Home Odds: 2.5

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