2026 WEEK 3 · EXPERT PICKS

Pick'em with Confidence Points

Our suggested winners, ordered from 16 confidence points to 1. Pick straight-up winners; assign each point value once according to your pool rules.

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Team outlooks from MyFootballToolbox Power Rankings. Records and recent form use only games completed before Week 3. Confidence points indicate an order, not a win probability or guarantee. Expert picks can differ from the market favorite.

16POINTS

Expert pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs favored by 11.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #18.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #3

Last 4: W 33-30 INDW 31-10 DEN

Kansas City generated 523 yards but needed overtime to beat Indianapolis. Its offensive ceiling is clear; turning that production into a more comfortable margin is the next challenge.

Miami Dolphins

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #32

Last 4: L 13-35 SFL 13-27 LV

Miami allowed 382 yards and 35 points at San Francisco. Finding more defensive resistance and improving an offense that scored 13 are both required before the outlook meaningfully improves.

15POINTS

Expert pick: Seattle Seahawks

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks favored by 7 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #14.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Seattle Seahawks

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #1

Last 4: W 31-7 ARIW 13-10 NE

Seattle paired 381 yards of offense with just 151 allowed in Arizona. That two-sided performance supports its leading position; sustaining defensive control gives the offense room to operate.

Washington Commanders

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #29

Last 4: L 20-37 DALL 22-24 PHI

Washington produced 389 yards, including 182 rushing, but conceded 37 points. Keeping the ground game productive helps; combining it with better scoring prevention is necessary to make that advantage count.

14POINTS

Expert pick: San Francisco 49ers

Sun Sep 27 - 4:05 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers favored by 8.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #13.61 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Arizona Cardinals

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #27

Last 4: L 7-31 SEAW 26-14 LAC

Arizona managed 151 yards against Seattle, including only 81 net passing yards. Establishing a functional passing attack is the most immediate need after a game with little offensive margin.

San Francisco 49ers

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #6

Last 4: W 35-13 MIAW 27-7 LA

San Francisco produced 287 net passing yards in a 35-13 win. The passing game drove another positive result, while stronger opponents will offer a clearer measure of defensive progress.

13POINTS

Expert pick: Buffalo Bills

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills favored by 7 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #13.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Los Angeles Chargers

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #28

Last 4: L 14-26 LVL 14-26 ARI

The Chargers narrowly outgained Las Vegas but scored only 14 points. They need more reward from their possessions, especially when a respectable rushing total does not translate into enough scoring.

Buffalo Bills

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #2

Last 4: W 41-31 DETW 36-31 HOU

Buffalo combined 203 rushing yards with 243 net passing yards against Detroit. The attack offers several routes to points, while allowing 31 keeps defensive improvement on the agenda.

12POINTS

Expert pick: Detroit Lions

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions favored by 6.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #9.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New York Jets

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #26

Last 4: L 17-20 GBW 23-10 TEN

The Jets held Green Bay to 199 yards but lost in overtime. That defensive performance is worth building on, while stronger offensive finishing could turn similarly close games in their favor.

Detroit Lions

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #13

Last 4: L 31-41 BUFW 31-30 NO

Detroit scored 31 but surrendered 446 yards, including 203 on the ground. Offensive scoring gives it a chance; reducing the volume and balance of opposing production is the pressing concern.

11POINTS

Expert pick: Green Bay Packers

Thu Sep 24 - 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay Packers favored by 6 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #8.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Atlanta Falcons

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #31

Last 4: L 3-34 CARL 13-20 PIT

Atlanta gained 157 rushing yards but scored only three points against Carolina. The ground production needs a complementary passing threat and better finishing before it can support a dependable offense.

Green Bay Packers

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #20

Last 4: W 20-17 NYJL 22-39 MIN

Green Bay won in overtime despite gaining just 199 yards. The result buys breathing room, but producing only 63 rushing yards and 136 net passing yards leaves substantial offensive work.

10POINTS

Expert pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #8.41 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #4

Last 4: W 20-6 HOUW 33-27 TB

Cincinnati won by 14 despite being outgained by Houston. Allowing only six points mattered most, but more sustained offensive production would make the winning formula less dependent on scoring prevention.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #24

Last 4: L 3-20 NEW 20-13 ATL

Pittsburgh finished with three points and 235 yards against New England. The immediate task is creating sustained scoring drives so the defense is not asked to keep every game within a field goal.

9POINTS

Expert pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Mon Sep 28 - 8:15 PM ET

Philadelphia Eagles favored by 4.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #9

Last 4: W 24-20 TENW 24-22 WAS

Philadelphia gained 341 yards in a four-point win at Tennessee. The unbeaten record is valuable, but closer games leave limited room for stalled possessions or defensive lapses.

Chicago Bears

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #16

Last 4: L 3-9 MINW 59-37 CAR

Chicago held Minnesota to 246 yards but scored only three points. Defensive resistance kept the game close; the offense must turn its own possessions into a credible scoring threat.

8POINTS

Expert pick: New York Giants

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

New York Giants favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Tennessee Titans

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #30

Last 4: L 20-24 PHIL 10-23 NYJ

Tennessee stayed within four points of Philadelphia after a difficult opener. Its 122 rushing yards provided support, but more consistent passing production is needed to push beyond competitive losses.

New York Giants

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #18

Last 4: L 6-28 LAW 28-20 DAL

New York gained only 182 yards while allowing 481 against the Rams. Improving offensive staying power and limiting opposing production are both necessary after such a large gap on the field.

7POINTS

Expert pick: Minnesota Vikings

Sun Sep 27 - 4:05 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings favored by 1.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #5.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Minnesota Vikings

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #10

Last 4: W 9-3 CHIW 39-22 GB

Minnesota won despite producing only 246 yards, holding Chicago to three points. The defense supplied the decisive edge; greater offensive output would make future wins less dependent on that extreme.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #25

Last 4: L 19-23 CLEL 27-33 CIN

Tampa Bay outgained Cleveland but lost 23-19. Turning possession-level production into points is the priority; a yardage advantage alone provides little protection when the final margin is this narrow.

6POINTS

Expert pick: New Orleans Saints

Sun Sep 27 - 4:25 PM ET

New Orleans Saints favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Las Vegas Raiders

Record 2-0 · Power Rank #21

Last 4: W 26-14 LACW 27-13 MIA

Las Vegas converted 305 yards into 26 points against the Chargers. The passing game provided most of the production; more help from the ground attack would broaden its options.

New Orleans Saints

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #14

Last 4: W 24-17 BALL 30-31 DET

New Orleans won with 298 yards against Baltimore, making its scoring opportunities count. Sustaining that efficiency while creating more consistent rushing production would reduce the pressure on the passing game.

5POINTS

Expert pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New England Patriots

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #12

Last 4: W 20-3 PITL 10-13 SEA

New England limited Pittsburgh to 235 yards and three points. That gives the Patriots a solid defensive result to build on while an offense with 327 yards seeks further growth.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #8

Last 4: L 13-20 DENW 34-10 CLE

Jacksonville managed 13 points and 268 yards in Denver. Recovering offensive consistency is the immediate priority after a game in which neither the passing nor rushing attack carried enough weight.

4POINTS

Expert pick: Baltimore Ravens

Sun Sep 27 - 4:25 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Neutral site: Maracana Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #11

Last 4: L 17-24 NOW 41-23 IND

Baltimore held a modest yardage advantage over New Orleans but lost by seven. Translating productive possessions into points remains essential, especially when the defense cannot keep opponents out of the end zone.

Dallas Cowboys

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #15

Last 4: W 37-20 WASL 20-28 NYG

Dallas scored 37 despite being outgained by Washington. The result is encouraging, but allowing 182 rushing yards identifies a clear defensive weakness to address before the next test.

3POINTS

Expert pick: Houston Texans

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.71 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Houston Texans

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #17

Last 4: L 6-20 CINL 31-36 BUF

Houston gained 374 yards yet finished with six points against Cincinnati. Moving the ball is only part of the job; translating yardage into scoring is the central challenge after this loss.

Indianapolis Colts

Record 0-2 · Power Rank #22

Last 4: L 30-33 KCL 23-41 BAL

Indianapolis scored 30 and still lost after allowing Kansas City 523 yards. The offense made this competitive, but the defense must reduce the burden of keeping pace in high-scoring games.

2POINTS

Expert pick: Carolina Panthers

Sun Sep 27 - 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Carolina Panthers

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #19

Last 4: W 34-3 ATLL 37-59 CHI

Carolina followed its opener with a 34-3 win and 272 net passing yards. The passing production offers encouragement, while repeating the defensive scoring result would establish a firmer foundation.

Cleveland Browns

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #23

Last 4: W 23-19 TBL 10-34 JAX

Cleveland earned a four-point win with 267 yards of offense. Holding Tampa Bay to 19 helped overcome limited rushing production; improving that balance would give the attack a steadier base.

1POINTS

Expert pick: Los Angeles Rams

Sun Sep 27 - 8:20 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Los Angeles Rams

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #5

Last 4: W 28-6 NYGL 7-27 SF

The Rams gained 481 yards while holding New York to 182. That substantial gap provides a strong response to the opener; repeating it will matter more than one dominant night.

Denver Broncos

Record 1-1 · Power Rank #7

Last 4: W 20-13 JAXL 10-31 KC

Denver held Jacksonville to 268 yards while generating 392 of its own. Converting that yardage advantage into more points would strengthen a rebound built on contributions from both units.

The Odds Lines are for reference only as they may have changed since publishing.