2026 WEEK 4 · EXPERT PICKS

Pick'em with Confidence Points

Our suggested winners, ordered from 16 confidence points to 1. Pick straight-up winners; assign each point value once according to your pool rules.

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Entering Week 4 outlooks from MyFootballToolbox Power Rankings. Based on entering-Week-4 rankings following completed Week 3. Confidence points indicate an order, not a win probability or guarantee. Expert picks can differ from the market favorite.

16POINTS

Expert pick: Baltimore Ravens

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens favored by 11.5 points (reference line)

Tennessee Titans

Designated away · Power Rank #31

Consensus average: 31.33. Week 3: lost 7-12, gaining 262 yards and allowing 238. Holding an opponent to twelve points should keep a team in contention. The passing and rushing production still need to create more scoring opportunities.

Baltimore Ravens

Designated home · Power Rank #5

Consensus average: 6.00. Week 3: won 34-31, gaining 378 yards and allowing 415. A strong rushing contribution helped overcome a yardage deficit. The defense needs to allow fewer sustained drives to make future wins less precarious.

15POINTS

Expert pick: Minnesota Vikings

Sun Oct 4 - 4:05 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings favored by 11.5 points (reference line)

Miami Dolphins

Designated away · Power Rank #32

Consensus average: 31.33. Week 3: lost 10-24, gaining 329 yards and allowing 334. The offense moved the ball but finished with only ten points. Improving the return on those possessions is the first step toward competitiveness.

Minnesota Vikings

Designated home · Power Rank #8

Consensus average: 7.33. Week 3: won 23-16, gaining 230 yards and allowing 243. The defense held the opponent below 250 yards. More offensive production would provide breathing room in games where that defensive standard slips.

14POINTS

Expert pick: Seattle Seahawks

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks favored by 7 points (reference line)

Los Angeles Chargers

Designated away · Power Rank #29

Consensus average: 26.67. Week 3: lost 16-24, gaining 348 yards and allowing 350. The yardage gap was only two yards, so this was competitive despite the result. Turning possession into points remains the immediate challenge.

Seattle Seahawks

Designated home · Power Rank #4

Consensus average: 4.00. Week 3: lost 31-33, gaining 437 yards and allowing 258. A large passing total could not offset the final score. The modest rushing contribution highlights an area that could make the offense more dependable.

13POINTS

Expert pick: Buffalo Bills

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills favored by 7 points (reference line)

New England Patriots

Designated away · Power Rank #23

Consensus average: 23.33. Week 3: lost 6-35, gaining 317 yards and allowing 315. The teams were nearly even in yardage, yet the score was lopsided. More reliable scoring drives are essential; raw volume offers little comfort here.

Buffalo Bills

Designated home · Power Rank #1

Consensus average: 1.67. Week 3: won 24-16, gaining 350 yards and allowing 348. The rushing attack supplied just over half the offense. That balance is useful, but this narrow yardage edge leaves room for cleaner execution.

12POINTS

Expert pick: Chicago Bears

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

New York Jets

Designated away · Power Rank #27

Consensus average: 25.00. Week 3: lost 24-31, gaining 335 yards and allowing 381. The passing game carried the offense while the running game contributed little. Better balance would make it easier to sustain drives.

Chicago Bears

Designated home · Power Rank #10

Consensus average: 10.67. Week 3: won 27-7, gaining 375 yards and allowing 248. The offense combined passing and rushing production while the defense limited scoring. Repeating that balanced performance would strengthen the case for moving higher.

11POINTS

Expert pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs favored by 4.5 points (reference line)

Kansas City Chiefs

Designated away · Power Rank #3

Consensus average: 3.00. Week 3: won 24-10, gaining 334 yards and allowing 329. The defense kept the scoring low despite a nearly even yardage total. Stronger rushing output would give the offense another reliable option.

Las Vegas Raiders

Designated home · Power Rank #12

Consensus average: 11.67. Week 3: won 35-27, gaining 340 yards and allowing 381. The scoring was strong despite being outgained. Keeping the offense productive while tightening the defense is the next test of this early success.

10POINTS

Expert pick: Detroit Lions

Sun Oct 4 - 8:20 PM ET

Detroit Lions favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

Detroit Lions

Designated away · Power Rank #13

Consensus average: 13.00. Week 3: won 31-24, gaining 381 yards and allowing 335. A balanced offensive day was enough to win. Allowing 24 points keeps the defensive work visible even with a positive yardage margin.

Carolina Panthers

Designated home · Power Rank #24

Consensus average: 24.67. Week 3: lost 18-21, gaining 360 yards and allowing 259. A sizeable yardage advantage did not produce a win. Finishing drives must improve before the underlying production can support a higher placement.

9POINTS

Expert pick: Green Bay Packers

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

Green Bay Packers

Designated away · Power Rank #26

Consensus average: 25.00. Week 3: lost 14-35, gaining 328 yards and allowing 498. Seventeen rushing yards left almost everything on the passing game. A more dependable rushing attack is needed to reduce that imbalance.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Designated home · Power Rank #30

Consensus average: 29.33. Week 3: lost 16-23, gaining 243 yards and allowing 230. The defense limited yardage, but the offense could not generate enough points. Improving the rushing contribution would relieve some pressure on the passing game.

8POINTS

Expert pick: Los Angeles Rams

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams favored by 3 points (reference line)

Los Angeles Rams

Designated away · Power Rank #9

Consensus average: 9.67. Week 3: lost 26-30, gaining 482 yards and allowing 257. A major yardage advantage still ended in defeat. Converting that production into a more reliable scoring return is more urgent than adding raw volume.

Philadelphia Eagles

Designated home · Power Rank #14

Consensus average: 13.33. Week 3: lost 7-27, gaining 248 yards and allowing 375. Both scoring and total production fell short. Restoring a more effective passing game is central to recovering from this uneven performance.

7POINTS

Expert pick: Indianapolis Colts

Sun Oct 4 - 9:30 AM ET

Indianapolis Colts favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

Neutral site: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Designated away · Power Rank #19

Consensus average: 19.67. Week 3: won 19-17, gaining 300 yards and allowing 223. Limiting the opponent to 223 yards gave the offense a manageable target. Another solid defensive effort would help establish that improvement.

Washington Commanders

Designated home · Power Rank #22

Consensus average: 23.33. Week 3: won 33-31, gaining 258 yards and allowing 437. The win came despite a substantial yardage deficit. Better sustained offensive production would provide a more repeatable foundation for the next game.

6POINTS

Expert pick: San Francisco 49ers

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers favored by 3 points (reference line)

Denver Broncos

Designated away · Power Rank #6

Consensus average: 6.67. Week 3: won 30-26, gaining 257 yards and allowing 482. The win arrived despite a large yardage deficit. More sustained offense and fewer yards allowed would make the next result easier to support.

San Francisco 49ers

Designated home · Power Rank #2

Consensus average: 1.67. Week 3: won 36-30, gaining 437 yards and allowing 365. Strong passing production drove another high-scoring result. Allowing thirty points leaves a clear defensive concern beneath the successful finish.

5POINTS

Expert pick: New Orleans Saints

Mon Oct 5 - 8:15 PM ET

New Orleans Saints favored by 3 points (reference line)

Atlanta Falcons

Designated away · Power Rank #21

Consensus average: 22.33. Week 3: won 35-14, gaining 498 yards and allowing 328. The ground game supplied a clear route to control. Sustaining that balance matters more than expecting another comfortable margin.

New Orleans Saints

Designated home · Power Rank #17

Consensus average: 17.33. Week 3: lost 27-35, gaining 381 yards and allowing 340. The offense had a balanced, productive day without getting the result. Conceding thirty-five points leaves little margin for missed scoring chances.

4POINTS

Expert pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Thu Oct 1 - 8:15 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Designated away · Power Rank #16

Consensus average: 16.33. Week 3: won 30-27, gaining 411 yards and allowing 352. Production through the air and on the ground supported a useful win. The defense still allowed enough points to keep the outcome uncertain.

Cleveland Browns

Designated home · Power Rank #20

Consensus average: 20.67. Week 3: won 21-18, gaining 259 yards and allowing 360. Winning while being outgained shows why yardage alone cannot explain a game. More passing production would make the next result less dependent on small margins.

3POINTS

Expert pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Designated away · Power Rank #7

Consensus average: 7.00. Week 3: won 35-6, gaining 315 yards and allowing 317. The scoring margin was much stronger than the yardage margin. Keeping opponents out of the end zone remains valuable even when they move the ball.

Cincinnati Bengals

Designated home · Power Rank #11

Consensus average: 11.33. Week 3: lost 27-30, gaining 352 yards and allowing 411. The offense scored enough to stay close, but the defense conceded substantial production. Limiting both phases is the priority after this setback.

2POINTS

Expert pick: New York Giants

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals favored by 1.5 points (reference line)

Arizona Cardinals

Designated away · Power Rank #28

Consensus average: 25.67. Week 3: lost 30-36, gaining 365 yards and allowing 437. Thirty points kept the offense competitive. The defense needs to reduce passing production allowed before that scoring can translate into more wins.

New York Giants

Designated home · Power Rank #18

Consensus average: 19.67. Week 3: won 12-7, gaining 238 yards and allowing 262. The defense made a low offensive total sufficient. That is a narrow path to repeat, especially with only 100 net passing yards.

1POINTS

Expert pick: Houston Texans

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

Dallas Cowboys

Designated away · Power Rank #15

Consensus average: 14.33. Week 3: lost 31-34, gaining 415 yards and allowing 378. The offense generated plenty of yardage and points. Better resistance against the run would reduce the burden on that scoring pace.

Houston Texans

Designated home · Power Rank #25

Consensus average: 25.00. Week 3: lost 17-19, gaining 223 yards and allowing 300. The offense struggled in both phases. Generating more sustained production is the clearest requirement for reversing the early results.

The Odds Lines are for reference only as they may have changed since publishing.