2026 WEEK 4 · EXPERT PICKS

Pick'em with Confidence Points

Our suggested winners, ordered from 16 confidence points to 1. Pick straight-up winners; assign each point value once according to your pool rules.

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Team outlooks from MyFootballToolbox Power Rankings. Records and recent form use only games completed before Week 4. Confidence points indicate an order, not a win probability or guarantee. Expert picks can differ from the market favorite.

16POINTS

Expert pick: Baltimore Ravens

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens favored by 11.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #18.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Tennessee Titans

Record 0-3 · Power Rank #31

Last 4: L 7-12 NYGL 20-24 PHIL 10-23 NYJ

Week 3: lost 7-12, gaining 262 yards and allowing 238. Holding an opponent to twelve points should keep a team in contention. The passing and rushing production still need to create more scoring opportunities.

Baltimore Ravens

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #5

Last 4: W 34-31 DALL 17-24 NOW 41-23 IND

Week 3: won 34-31, gaining 378 yards and allowing 415. A strong rushing contribution helped overcome a yardage deficit. The defense needs to allow fewer sustained drives to make future wins less precarious.

15POINTS

Expert pick: Minnesota Vikings

Sun Oct 4 - 4:05 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings favored by 11.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #17.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Miami Dolphins

Record 0-3 · Power Rank #32

Last 4: L 10-24 KCL 13-35 SFL 13-27 LV

Week 3: lost 10-24, gaining 329 yards and allowing 334. The offense moved the ball but finished with only ten points. Improving the return on those possessions is the first step toward competitiveness.

Minnesota Vikings

Record 3-0 · Power Rank #8

Last 4: W 23-16 TBW 9-3 CHIW 39-22 GB

Week 3: won 23-16, gaining 230 yards and allowing 243. The defense held the opponent below 250 yards. More offensive production would provide breathing room in games where that defensive standard slips.

14POINTS

Expert pick: Seattle Seahawks

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks favored by 7 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #13.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Los Angeles Chargers

Record 0-3 · Power Rank #29

Last 4: L 16-24 BUFL 14-26 LVL 14-26 ARI

Week 3: lost 16-24, gaining 348 yards and allowing 350. The yardage gap was only two yards, so this was competitive despite the result. Turning possession into points remains the immediate challenge.

Seattle Seahawks

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #4

Last 4: L 31-33 WASW 31-7 ARIW 13-10 NE

Week 3: lost 31-33, gaining 437 yards and allowing 258. A large passing total could not offset the final score. The modest rushing contribution highlights an area that could make the offense more dependable.

13POINTS

Expert pick: Buffalo Bills

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills favored by 7 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #12.38 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New England Patriots

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #23

Last 4: L 6-35 JAXW 20-3 PITL 10-13 SEA

Week 3: lost 6-35, gaining 317 yards and allowing 315. The teams were nearly even in yardage, yet the score was lopsided. More reliable scoring drives are essential; raw volume offers little comfort here.

Buffalo Bills

Record 3-0 · Power Rank #1

Last 4: W 24-16 LACW 41-31 DETW 36-31 HOU

Week 3: won 24-16, gaining 350 yards and allowing 348. The rushing attack supplied just over half the offense. That balance is useful, but this narrow yardage edge leaves room for cleaner execution.

12POINTS

Expert pick: Chicago Bears

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #7.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New York Jets

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #27

Last 4: L 24-31 DETL 17-20 GBW 23-10 TEN

Week 3: lost 24-31, gaining 335 yards and allowing 381. The passing game carried the offense while the running game contributed little. Better balance would make it easier to sustain drives.

Chicago Bears

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #10

Last 4: W 27-7 PHIL 3-9 MINW 59-37 CAR

Week 3: won 27-7, gaining 375 yards and allowing 248. The offense combined passing and rushing production while the defense limited scoring.

11POINTS

Expert pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs favored by 4.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.68 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record 3-0 · Power Rank #3

Last 4: W 24-10 MIAW 33-30 INDW 31-10 DEN

Week 3: won 24-10, gaining 334 yards and allowing 329. The defense kept the scoring low despite a nearly even yardage total. Stronger rushing output would give the offense another reliable option.

Las Vegas Raiders

Record 3-0 · Power Rank #12

Last 4: W 35-27 NOW 26-14 LACW 27-13 MIA

Week 3: won 35-27, gaining 340 yards and allowing 381. The scoring was strong despite being outgained. Keeping the offense productive while tightening the defense is the next test of this early success.

10POINTS

Expert pick: Detroit Lions

Sun Oct 4 - 8:20 PM ET

Detroit Lions favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Detroit Lions

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #13

Last 4: W 31-24 NYJL 31-41 BUFW 31-30 NO

Week 3: won 31-24, gaining 381 yards and allowing 335. A balanced offensive day was enough to win. Allowing 24 points keeps the defensive work visible even with a positive yardage margin.

Carolina Panthers

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #24

Last 4: L 18-21 CLEW 34-3 ATLL 37-59 CHI

Week 3: lost 18-21, gaining 360 yards and allowing 259. A sizeable yardage advantage did not produce a win. Finishing drives must improve before the underlying production can support a higher placement.

9POINTS

Expert pick: Green Bay Packers

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Green Bay Packers

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #26

Last 4: L 14-35 ATLW 20-17 NYJL 22-39 MIN

Week 3: lost 14-35, gaining 328 yards and allowing 498. Seventeen rushing yards left almost everything on the passing game. A more dependable rushing attack is needed to reduce that imbalance.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record 0-3 · Power Rank #30

Last 4: L 16-23 MINL 19-23 CLEL 27-33 CIN

Week 3: lost 16-23, gaining 243 yards and allowing 230. The defense limited yardage, but the offense could not generate enough points. Improving the rushing contribution would relieve some pressure on the passing game.

8POINTS

Expert pick: Los Angeles Rams

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Los Angeles Rams

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #9

Last 4: L 26-30 DENW 28-6 NYGL 7-27 SF

Week 3: lost 26-30, gaining 482 yards and allowing 257. A major yardage advantage still ended in defeat. Converting that production into a more reliable scoring return is more urgent than adding raw volume.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #14

Last 4: L 7-27 CHIW 24-20 TENW 24-22 WAS

Week 3: lost 7-27, gaining 248 yards and allowing 375. Both scoring and total production fell short. Restoring a more effective passing game is central to recovering from this uneven performance.

7POINTS

Expert pick: Indianapolis Colts

Sun Oct 4 - 9:30 AM ET

Indianapolis Colts favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Neutral site: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #19

Last 4: W 19-17 HOUL 30-33 KCL 23-41 BAL

Week 3: won 19-17, gaining 300 yards and allowing 223. Limiting the opponent to 223 yards gave the offense a manageable target. Another solid defensive effort would help establish that improvement.

Washington Commanders

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #22

Last 4: W 33-31 SEAL 20-37 DALL 22-24 PHI

Week 3: won 33-31, gaining 258 yards and allowing 437. The win came despite a substantial yardage deficit. Better sustained offensive production would provide a more repeatable foundation for the next game.

6POINTS

Expert pick: San Francisco 49ers

Sun Oct 4 - 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Denver Broncos

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #6

Last 4: W 30-26 LAW 20-13 JAXL 10-31 KC

Week 3: won 30-26, gaining 257 yards and allowing 482. The win arrived despite a large yardage deficit. More sustained offense and fewer yards allowed would make the next result easier to support.

San Francisco 49ers

Record 3-0 · Power Rank #2

Last 4: W 36-30 ARIW 35-13 MIAW 27-7 LA

Week 3: won 36-30, gaining 437 yards and allowing 365. Strong passing production drove another high-scoring result. Allowing thirty points leaves a clear defensive concern beneath the successful finish.

5POINTS

Expert pick: New Orleans Saints

Mon Oct 5 - 8:15 PM ET

New Orleans Saints favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.96 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Atlanta Falcons

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #21

Last 4: W 35-14 GBL 3-34 CARL 13-20 PIT

Week 3: won 35-14, gaining 498 yards and allowing 328. The ground game supplied a clear route to control. Sustaining that balance matters more than expecting another comfortable margin.

New Orleans Saints

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #17

Last 4: L 27-35 LVW 24-17 BALL 30-31 DET

Week 3: lost 27-35, gaining 381 yards and allowing 340. The offense had a balanced, productive day without getting the result. Conceding thirty-five points leaves little margin for missed scoring chances.

4POINTS

Expert pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Thu Oct 1 - 8:15 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.46 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #16

Last 4: W 30-27 CINL 3-20 NEW 20-13 ATL

Week 3: won 30-27, gaining 411 yards and allowing 352. Production through the air and on the ground supported a useful win. The defense still allowed enough points to keep the outcome uncertain.

Cleveland Browns

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #20

Last 4: W 21-18 CARW 23-19 TBL 10-34 JAX

Week 3: won 21-18, gaining 259 yards and allowing 360. Winning while being outgained shows why yardage alone cannot explain a game.

3POINTS

Expert pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #1.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #7

Last 4: W 35-6 NEL 13-20 DENW 34-10 CLE

Week 3: won 35-6, gaining 315 yards and allowing 317. The scoring margin was much stronger than the yardage margin. Keeping opponents out of the end zone remains valuable even when they move the ball.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #11

Last 4: L 27-30 PITW 20-6 HOUW 33-27 TB

Week 3: lost 27-30, gaining 352 yards and allowing 411. The offense scored enough to stay close, but the defense conceded substantial production. Limiting both phases is the priority after this setback.

2POINTS

Expert pick: New York Giants

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals favored by 1.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #1.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Arizona Cardinals

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #28

Last 4: L 30-36 SFL 7-31 SEAW 26-14 LAC

Week 3: lost 30-36, gaining 365 yards and allowing 437. Thirty points kept the offense competitive. The defense needs to reduce passing production allowed before that scoring can translate into more wins.

New York Giants

Record 2-1 · Power Rank #18

Last 4: W 12-7 TENL 6-28 LAW 28-20 DAL

Week 3: won 12-7, gaining 238 yards and allowing 262. The defense made a low offensive total sufficient. That is a narrow path to repeat, especially with only 100 net passing yards.

1POINTS

Expert pick: Houston Texans

Sun Oct 4 - 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #0.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Dallas Cowboys

Record 1-2 · Power Rank #15

Last 4: L 31-34 BALW 37-20 WASL 20-28 NYG

Week 3: lost 31-34, gaining 415 yards and allowing 378. The offense generated plenty of yardage and points. Better resistance against the run would reduce the burden on that scoring pace.

Houston Texans

Record 0-3 · Power Rank #25

Last 4: L 17-19 INDL 6-20 CINL 31-36 BUF

Week 3: lost 17-19, gaining 223 yards and allowing 300. The offense struggled in both phases. Generating more sustained production is the clearest requirement for reversing the early results.

The Odds Lines are for reference only as they may have changed since publishing.