Our suggested winners, ordered from 16 confidence points to 3. Pick straight-up winners; assign each point value once according to your pool rules.
Team outlooks from MyFootballToolbox Power Rankings. Records and recent form use only games completed before Week 6. Confidence points indicate an order, not a win probability or guarantee. Expert picks can differ from the market favorite.
Team outlooks reviewed 2026-10-13. Injury availability can change; recheck before kickoff. This text-only editorial update does not recalculate picks or confidence points.
Sun Oct 18 - 4:05 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams favored by 12.5 points (reference line)
Arizona CardinalsLast 4: L 21-45 DETL 24-36 NYGL 30-36 SFL 7-31 SEA
Conner remains on IR; repeated stalled drives leave too much for the defense.
Los Angeles RamsLast 4: L 34-37 BUFW 24-20 PHIL 26-30 DENW 28-6 NYG
Offense is producing; finishing and Garrett's knee recovery remain key concerns.
Sun Oct 18 - 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs favored by 8.5 points (reference line)
Los Angeles ChargersLast 4: L 17-23 DENL 23-30 SEAL 16-24 BUFL 14-26 LV
McConkey's foot limited him to emergency availability; Herbert needs reliable help.
Kansas City ChiefsLast 4: W 30-27 LVW 24-10 MIAW 33-30 INDW 31-10 DEN
Rice's hamstring remains a watch item; Walker anchors the post-bye attack.
Mon Oct 19 - 8:15 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers favored by 7.5 points (reference line)
Washington CommandersLast 4: T 27-27 NYGL 13-30 INDW 33-31 SEAL 20-37 DAL
Daniels returned with his elbow brace; late-game execution still needs repair.
San Francisco 49ersLast 4: W 32-29 SEAW 24-14 DENW 36-30 ARIW 35-13 MIA
Deebo's hamstring absence tests an unbeaten team's receiving depth.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots favored by 7.5 points (reference line)
New York JetsLast 4: W 17-12 CLEL 12-23 CHIL 24-31 DETL 17-20 GB
Hall's availability matters after Allen and Wilson carried a depleted offense.
New England PatriotsLast 4: W 45-17 LVW 29-26 BUFL 6-35 JAXW 20-3 PIT
Henderson and Campbell injuries force rushing and protection adjustments.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts favored by 7 points (reference line)
Tennessee TitansLast 4: L 3-26 HOUL 18-24 BALL 7-12 NYGL 20-24 PHI
Ward needs a sustained-drive response; Flott's chest injury adds a defensive concern.
Indianapolis ColtsLast 4: L 22-34 PITW 30-13 WASW 19-17 HOUL 30-33 KC
Warren provides a bright spot; red-zone execution must improve against Tennessee.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens favored by 4.5 points (reference line)
Baltimore RavensLast 4: W 30-23 ATLW 24-18 TENW 34-31 DALL 17-24 NO
Lamar's ankle remains unresolved; Huntley's Atlanta win supplies a fallback.
Cleveland BrownsLast 4: L 12-17 NYJW 27-24 PITW 21-18 CARW 23-19 TB
Judkins' ankle and Sanders' hip cloud a backfield needed against Baltimore.
Sun Oct 18 - 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo Bills favored by 5.5 points (reference line)
Buffalo BillsLast 4: W 37-34 LAL 26-29 NEW 24-16 LACW 41-31 DET
Moore and Palmer shoulder concerns leave more on Allen after the OT escape.
Las Vegas RaidersLast 4: L 17-45 NEL 27-30 KCW 35-27 NOW 26-14 LAC
Jeanty's ankle/foot concerns persist as the defense prepares for Josh Allen.
Sun Oct 18 - 9:30 AM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 3 points (reference line)
Neutral site: Wembley Stadium
Houston TexansLast 4: W 26-3 TENL 30-34 DALL 17-19 INDL 6-20 CIN
Montgomery is week-to-week; Marks' workload matters for the London follow-up.
Jacksonville JaguarsLast 4: W 19-17 PHIW 22-17 CINW 35-6 NEL 13-20 DEN
Harrison's knee injury shifts Lawrence's blind-side protection to Little.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points (reference line)
Pittsburgh SteelersLast 4: W 34-22 INDL 24-27 CLEW 30-27 CINL 3-20 NE
Wilson and Skowronek are out; receiver shortages increase reliance on Warren.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersLast 4: W 24-16 DALL 14-17 GBL 16-23 MINL 19-23 CLE
Dallas win offers a reset; Pittsburgh's receiver injuries do not erase its run threat.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears favored by 3 points (reference line)
Chicago BearsLast 4: L 7-31 GBW 23-12 NYJW 27-7 PHIL 3-9 MIN
Caleb's hamstring recovery drives the outlook; a return is not yet confirmed.
Atlanta FalconsLast 4: L 23-30 BALW 45-24 NOW 35-14 GBL 3-34 CAR
Penix's ribs make the passing outlook conditional until his progress is clearer.
Thu Oct 15 - 8:15 PM ET
Seattle Seahawks favored by 3 points (reference line)
Seattle SeahawksLast 4: L 29-32 SFW 30-23 LACL 31-33 WASW 31-7 ARI
JSN's ankle is the key short-week watch; Monday's report was only an estimate.
Denver BroncosLast 4: W 23-17 LACL 14-24 SFW 30-26 LAW 20-13 JAX
Surtain and Hufanga ankle concerns threaten coverage depth on a short week.
Sun Oct 18 - 8:20 PM ET
Green Bay Packers favored by 1.5 points (reference line)
Dallas CowboysLast 4: L 16-24 TBW 34-30 HOUL 31-34 BALW 37-20 WAS
Monitor Lamb's bruised quad; Overshown's hoped-for return is not clearance.
Green Bay PackersLast 4: W 31-7 CHIW 17-14 TBL 14-35 ATLW 20-17 NYJ
Hargrave is lost for the season; Parsons is not yet cleared to practice.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints favored by 1.5 points (reference line)
New Orleans SaintsLast 4: L 13-23 MINL 24-45 ATLL 27-35 LVW 24-17 BAL
Tyson is not expected back at practice; routine offensive gains remain scarce.
New York GiantsLast 4: T 27-27 WASW 36-24 ARIW 12-7 TENL 6-28 LA
Nabers powers the comeback threat; the Giants need control, not another rescue.
Sun Oct 18 - 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles favored by 1.5 points (reference line)
Carolina PanthersLast 4: W 32-26 DETL 18-21 CLEW 34-3 ATLL 37-59 CHI
Fresh off the bye; Moton's practice window is progress, not game clearance.
Philadelphia EaglesLast 4: L 17-19 JAXL 20-24 LAL 7-27 CHIW 24-20 TEN
Barkley and Smith returns remain uncertain; Shipley's foot injury adds strain.
The Odds Lines are for reference only as they may have changed since publishing.