2026 WEEK 1 · EXPERT PICKS

Pick'em with Confidence Points

Our suggested winners, ordered from 16 confidence points to 1. Pick straight-up winners; assign each point value once according to your pool rules.

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Team outlooks from MyFootballToolbox Power Rankings. No 2026 regular-season results yet. Confidence points indicate an order, not a win probability or guarantee. Expert picks can differ from the market favorite.

16POINTS

Expert pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 7.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #12.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Cleveland Browns

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #28

Last 4: No regular-season games

Cleveland's young core is getting stronger, but uncertainty at quarterback limits the offense's immediate outlook. Trading Myles Garrett and changing the coaching staff also leave the defense facing a major transition.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #7

Last 4: No regular-season games

Jacksonville carries strong momentum into Liam Coen's second season after Trevor Lawrence and the offense surged late in 2025. Continuity and an explosive attack make the Jaguars a serious AFC threat.

15POINTS

Expert pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Sun Sep 13 - 4:25 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers favored by 10.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #12.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Arizona Cardinals

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #26

Last 4: No regular-season games

Arizona has assembled an intriguing group of weapons around its quarterbacks, including Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and rookie Jeremiyah Love.

Los Angeles Chargers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #17

Last 4: No regular-season games

Mike McDaniel's arrival should add creativity to a deep backfield and a Justin Herbert-led offense. The Chargers can make a jump if their offensive line stays healthy and gives the new system time to work.

14POINTS

Expert pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Sun Sep 13 - 4:25 PM ET

Philadelphia Eagles favored by 4.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #10.64 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Washington Commanders

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #29

Last 4: No regular-season games

Washington added Stefon Diggs, but its season depends on Jayden Daniels returning healthy and staying available. A rebuilt defense and the loss of Laremy Tunsil create significant pressure on both sides of the ball.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #4

Last 4: No regular-season games

Philadelphia enters 2026 with a refreshed offense under coordinator Sean Mannion and enough defensive depth to withstand early injuries. The roster remains talented enough to rebound and contend for the NFC East.

13POINTS

Expert pick: Detroit Lions

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions favored by 7 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #8.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New Orleans Saints

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #21

Last 4: No regular-season games

New Orleans enters Kellen Moore's second season with Tyler Shough established at quarterback and encouraging late-2025 momentum. Thin depth along both lines is the largest obstacle in a wide-open NFC South.

Detroit Lions

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #14

Last 4: No regular-season games

Detroit remains dangerous when its offensive line controls games, and keeping Jahmyr Gibbs secured the offense's centerpiece. Injuries and transition up front will determine whether the Lions return to the playoff field.

12POINTS

Expert pick: Los Angeles Rams

Thu Sep 10 - 8:35 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #7.18 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Neutral site: Melbourne Cricket Ground

San Francisco 49ers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #16

Last 4: No regular-season games

San Francisco has enough proven talent to outperform this ranking, but another wave of injuries has already tested its depth.

Los Angeles Rams

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #1

Last 4: No regular-season games

The Rams enter the season with a championship-caliber roster led by reigning MVP Matthew Stafford. Adding Myles Garrett to an already imposing defense gives Los Angeles the league's highest ceiling entering Week 1.

11POINTS

Expert pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #7.00 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #22

Last 4: No regular-season games

Tampa Bay still has enough talent to compete in the division, but contract tension and the departures of veteran leaders have clouded the outlook. The Buccaneers need stability before they can be trusted as a contender.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #8

Last 4: No regular-season games

Cincinnati invested heavily in fixing its defense, and early camp results have been encouraging. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, the Bengals have the offensive firepower to return to the conference's top tier.

10POINTS

Expert pick: Baltimore Ravens

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Baltimore Ravens

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #6

Last 4: No regular-season games

Lamar Jackson still leads a dangerous offense, and Trey Hendrickson gives Baltimore the proven edge threat it lacked. The ceiling is high if the rebuilt interior line settles in and Jesse Minter restores the defense.

Indianapolis Colts

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #19

Last 4: No regular-season games

Daniel Jones is back after the injury that derailed a promising 2025 season, and Jonathan Taylor remains supported by a strong line. A thinner receiving corps is the primary concern for an otherwise competitive roster.

9POINTS

Expert pick: Dallas Cowboys

Sun Sep 13 - 8:20 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #6.43 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Dallas Cowboys

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #11

Last 4: No regular-season games

Dallas paired an explosive offense with an aggressive defensive overhaul led by new coordinator Christian Parker. If the new pieces come together quickly, the Cowboys have the profile of a surprise title contender.

New York Giants

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #27

Last 4: No regular-season games

Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo return for John Harbaugh's first season, while the defense looks improved on paper. Questions at receiver and within a new offensive structure keep the Giants in the rebuilding tier for now.

8POINTS

Expert pick: Seattle Seahawks

Wed Sep 9 - 8:20 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #5.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New England Patriots

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #12

Last 4: No regular-season games

The reigning AFC champions lost several important contributors, but Drake Maye remains the centerpiece of a talented offense. A.J.

Seattle Seahawks

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #3

Last 4: No regular-season games

The defending champions still have the defensive identity and offensive continuity to challenge for another title.

7POINTS

Expert pick: Chicago Bears

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears favored by 2.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #5.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Chicago Bears

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #10

Last 4: No regular-season games

Chicago's upward trajectory remains clear, but injuries in the secondary and receiving corps have created early concern. The Bears still have enough talent to contend if those units regain their health.

Carolina Panthers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #23

Last 4: No regular-season games

The defending NFC South champions have already absorbed several important injuries, especially around the offensive line. Added tackle depth helps, but Carolina enters Week 1 with less margin for error than expected.

6POINTS

Expert pick: Tennessee Titans

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

New York Jets

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #30

Last 4: No regular-season games

Geno Smith has energized the offense in camp, but injuries and uncertainty on defense could force the Jets to win higher-scoring games. The roster has upside, though its margin for error remains small.

Tennessee Titans

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #24

Last 4: No regular-season games

Cam Ward is positioned for a second-year leap with Brian Daboll coordinating the offense and rookie Carnell Tate joining the receiving corps. Tennessee is improving, though its rebuilt defense still has much to prove.

5POINTS

Expert pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #4.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Atlanta Falcons

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #25

Last 4: No regular-season games

The Falcons have enough skill-position talent to climb, but their quarterback situation remains unsettled as Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa work through health concerns.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #20

Last 4: No regular-season games

Mike McCarthy begins his first season in Pittsburgh with a roster capable of staying in the playoff race. Michael Pittman Jr. helps the passing game, but the season still depends on what Aaron Rodgers can deliver at age 42.

4POINTS

Expert pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Sun Sep 13 - 4:25 PM ET

Las Vegas Raiders favored by 3.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #3.75 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Miami Dolphins

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #32

Last 4: No regular-season games

Miami is beginning a major rebuild after losing several top offensive and defensive contributors. De'Von Achane remains a dynamic weapon, but Malik Willis faces a difficult first season as the full-time starter.

Las Vegas Raiders

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #31

Last 4: No regular-season games

Las Vegas has a bridge quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a long-term option in top pick Fernando Mendoza. A rebuilt line and thin receiving corps suggest the Raiders may need time before their offseason changes produce results.

3POINTS

Expert pick: Buffalo Bills

Sun Sep 13 - 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills favored by 1.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #2.50 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Buffalo Bills

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #5

Last 4: No regular-season games

Josh Allen and James Cook keep Buffalo's offense in the championship conversation as Joe Brady moves into the head-coaching role. The defense has a few questions, but the Bills remain a leading AFC contender.

Houston Texans

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #9

Last 4: No regular-season games

Houston's excellent defense provides a playoff-ready foundation. The next step depends on C.J. Stroud, a reworked offensive line, and a deeper running game producing more consistent offense.

2POINTS

Expert pick: Denver Broncos

Mon Sep 14 - 8:15 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs favored by 3 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #0.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Denver Broncos

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #2

Last 4: No regular-season games

Denver returns most of the core from a 14-win team and added Jaylen Waddle to an offense that should be more dangerous.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #15

Last 4: No regular-season games

Patrick Mahomes' return to full practice restores optimism after his knee injury. Kansas City still has questions at receiver and in a rebuilt secondary, but a healthy Mahomes keeps the Chiefs in the contender mix.

1POINTS

Expert pick: Minnesota Vikings

Sun Sep 13 - 4:25 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings favored by 1.5 points (reference line)

MFT Confidence Index #0.25 · Higher means stronger relative pick confidence; it is not a win probability.

Green Bay Packers

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #13

Last 4: No regular-season games

Green Bay has the talent to rebound after reshaping parts of the roster and defensive scheme. The Packers' early outlook hinges on several key players returning cleanly from significant injuries.

Minnesota Vikings

Record 0-0 · Power Rank #18

Last 4: No regular-season games

Minnesota won nine games despite unstable quarterback play and now turns to Kyler Murray. If Murray revives the passing game with Justin Jefferson, the Vikings can rise quickly in a loaded NFC North.

The Odds Lines are for reference only as they may have changed since publishing.